Microrefugia Against Climate Change

Understanding how climate change will affect the natural world requires us to be able to identify locations where species can persist despite rising temperatures. Fortunately, we have models which enable us to identify habitat that is resilient to climate change. Unfortunately, the climate data these models need are typically available at fairly coarse spatial resolutions (i.e., 0.5 miles or larger). As a result, these models cannot predict the locations of “microrefugia”, small places like sheltered coves, north-facing bluffs, or valleys that have cooler temperatures than the surrounding region.  

In this project we will develop a high-resolution temperature map of WashU’s Tyson Research Center. The map will be paired with surveys of plant species, then used to identify landscape features that can buffer changes in the macroclimate of the surrounding region.  We will then compare models using coarse climate data and the fine-scale climate data to help us understand what kinds of topographic features are important to conserve to ensure species can persist despite changing climate.

The work from this grant resulted in a ward-winning, mini-documentary by WashU’s “The Source” team: Our World By Degrees: In Search of Refuge

Research Team

Kimberly Medley, WashU (Tyson Research Center)
Adam B. Smith, Missouri Botanical Garden
Stephen Murphy, Missouri Botanical Garden
Jonathan Myers, WashU (Biology)